Next translate 2-7
Topic: Crypto theses for 2022 - The main trends, people, companies, and projects in the Crypto space worth paying attention to, as well as predictions for 2022
Original report download link: https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf
If any big tech company disrupts itself in a meaningful way through Web3 technology, it will likely be an under-monetized, founder-led social media company with the most thoughtful crypto supporters.
Of course, I'm talking about Meta. (Surprise!)
When I started writing this section, I expected a 30-minute review and quick primer, letting Jay Graber take over Twitter's Bluesky project this summer. "Jay decentralizes Twitter" and a mocking image of Jay were my placeholders and starting bias. When I began to really dig into Bluesky, my perspective changed. So far, there has been relatively little activity within the Bluesky "community," especially compared to Diem’s Github/Gitlab, making me question whether Twitter is seriously trying to disrupt itself and unlock its user data honey pot. Jay is great, but is Bluesky a serious project or just a shallow sandbox?
Perhaps given the current throughput limitations of crypto, "full-stack decentralized media" may not be a suitable near-term endgame for Twitter. It might be too early to have such expectations for early-stage projects like Bluesky. Instead, the project seems focused on first connecting data between *other* decentralized platforms like Mastodon, IPFS, Audius, etc.
This is interesting. It's important foundational work for the decentralized web. It doesn't seem as self-destructive to Twitter as I initially imagined.
Amazon doesn’t seem to face any meaningful Web3 threat right now (AWS could potentially be challenged in the long run). Google Search and Microsoft Office might have insurmountable moats. Apple still holds a first-mover advantage and dominance in hardware. YouTube theoretically could integrate Web3 components, but it seems unlikely since they already split revenue with creators (albeit stingily).
Meta, on the other hand, is different. Their rebranding isn’t just an embrace of the Web3 future; it’s also a political necessity to elevate themselves higher, even for survival.
Will we see Novi meaningfully integrated into Meta’s Messenger and Whatsapp products?
They are trying.
Will we see NFTs in Instagram or Oculus?
Most likely, if $10 billion/year is their real target investment in the metaverse.
Will Facebook-owned Blue App open up its backend and start allowing users to directly license their data to third parties?
Maybe! If other bets pay off.
Can Meta's gaming plan first monetize the platform's network and pave the way for the impossible: self-disruption of Facebook's current ad-driven business.
I don't know
I’m not a defender of Mark Zuckerberg. I just think necessity is the mother of invention, past performance can be a good predictor of future success, and no one else in Big Tech has all the ingredients to fight with Web3 as part of their core business model. Hopefully, Mark gets a chance at a Grinch-like comeback.
I’m lukewarm on Twitter’s actual embrace of decentralized technology (except for Jack’s obsession with Bitcoin). But again, it all comes down to Jay and the BlueSky team. I hope they surprise us.
Update: Let’s get surprised! A few weeks after writing this piece, Twitter announced Tess Rinearson as the Engineering Lead for Crypto. This caught my attention. I’m more excited about BlueSky/Twitter in 2022 now, with two relevant teams, one being an internal team that reports directly to the CTO.
Update update: Jack just resigned! The non-Bitcoin gates are open, and I’ll be closely watching Jay and Tess.