, and is currently employed by OpenAI, yet he is only 22 years old.
The first version of this article was released in June 2024, and it delves deeply into the forward-looking developments in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Article Overview
The global industrial landscape centered around AI is unfolding at an astonishing pace.
: The investment target for computing clusters, from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars, has seen frequent upgrades in corporate planning within just one year. Behind this lies the reality of major companies fiercely competing for power contracts, transformers, and hardware resources, signaling an unprecedented industrial mobilization on the horizon. : The author predicts that by 2025/26, the thinking and reasoning abilities of machines will surpass those of most college graduates; by the end of this century, superintelligence will become a reality. This not only heralds a technological breakthrough but also harbors potential global upheaval: competition or war? : Despite AI development becoming a prominent field, the vast majority of people remain unaware of its impending profound impacts. Mainstream discourse and corporate analysts still significantly misjudge the potential of AI.
Excerpts from core chapters
If there's time later, I can select some interesting chapters and write another note📝.
I. From GPT-4 to AGI: The Exponential Growth of Computing Power
By analyzing the enhancement of computing power, optimization of algorithm efficiency, and the qualitative changes brought by "unlocked" technology applications, the author argues that the realization of AGI by 2027 is highly credible.
II. From AGI to Superintelligence: The Path of Intelligence Explosion
Human-level AI is just the beginning. Once AGI can automate scientific research, the timeline for algorithmic progress may be compressed from decades to a year, leading to an entirely new technological singularity.
III. Challenges Ahead
: AI-driven economic growth will channel trillions of dollars into GPUs, data centers, and power infrastructure, reshaping the global industrial landscape. : Currently, top AI labs in the U.S. pay insufficient attention to security issues, making it easy for key technologies and model weights to fall into the hands of rogue nations. : Controlling AI that is more intelligent than humans is an unsolved technical challenge, and once it goes out of control, the consequences will be extremely destructive. : Superintelligence will not only determine economic advantages but also become the key to military dominance. Whether the free world can win in this competition concerns the global destiny.
IV. The rise of "the Project"
As the AGI race intensifies, the U.S. government will have to intervene, possibly launching a national-level project on the scale of the "Manhattan Project" around 2027/28.
V. Conclusion: What if we are right?
The author concludes with a rhetorical question: "If our judgment about the future is correct, what kind of wild journey will the next decade be?"
Read the full text
https://situational-awareness.ai/